50 Million

Javier Trespalacios
Feb 18, 2020
5 min read

Updated: 6 days ago

According to an interview published in the newspaper El Tiempo with the director of DANE, Juan Daniel Oviedo, on Wednesday, February 12, 2020, at 7 a.m., Colombia would reach the figure of 50 million inhabitants (El Tiempo, 2020).

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This figure invites us to reflect on the challenges that the Colombian population will face in the context of major global environmental challenges. According to the United Nations (2020), in 2011 there were 7.7 billion inhabitants on the planet, and it is predicted that by 2050 Colombians will be part of the expected 9.7 billion people "That's a lot of people!". This projection raises significant questions about planetary sustainability.

Graph of the total population in Colombia in 2020 (Information: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/colombia-population/)

Evolution of population growth and its impacts on the planet

Population growth began approximately 10,000 years ago with the development of agriculture and animal domestication (Coutiño & Castellanos, n.d.). During the 18th century, the agricultural revolution facilitated the growth of human settlements. Subsequently, in the 1930s, the industrial revolution transformed the world with mass production and new industrial methods, marking the beginning of our dependence on fossil fuels: oil, coal, and gas.

Population growth generated a greater demand for resources, especially food, which led to the green revolution in the 1960s. This movement focused on increasing crop yields through the use of pesticides, chemical fertilizers, and greater soil exploitation (FAO, 1996). While this increase in food production made food more accessible, it also brought about considerable biodiversity loss.

In the 1980s, there was an increase in consumer goods, especially in transportation, with more automobiles, flights, and global trade. However, major environmental disasters also began to manifest, such as the drought in Ethiopia (Camacho, 1984), which revealed the vulnerabilities of the global food system. Currently, droughts and floods are more frequent and intense throughout the planet. That's a lot of people!

What will be the future of those 50 million Colombians on the planet?

It is predicted that global food needs will double by the year 2050 (Emmott, 2013). Available soil will be insufficient to meet these growing demands, which will also be affected by factors such as droughts and floods. The demand for additional food production could lead us to deforestation of new areas, further reducing biodiversity, an invaluable resource provided by nature.

Currently, more than 1 billion people face water scarcity (UNHCR Spanish Committee, 2019). It is important to understand that water is not only used for direct consumption, but also in food production and manufacturing of consumer goods. For example, to produce one kilogram of beef requires 15,977 liters of water (Näslund-Hadley et al., n.d.). This concept is known as "hidden water". Another illustrative example is a cotton t-shirt, which needs 125 liters of water for its production, "how many do we have in our closets?" All this highlights the fact that we are consuming water and food at unsustainable levels.

Food production requires considerable amounts of energy, which adds to the growing energy consumption needed to satisfy our comfort needs: air conditioning, heating, transportation, and manufacturing of consumer goods. To meet these demanHow many do we have in the closet?ds, we depend significantly on fossil fuels, which contribute to the greenhouse effect and global warming. It is projected that this energy consumption will triple by the end of this century (Emmott, 2013).

Now, climate, which determines the habitability of different regions of the planet, is influenced by four main elements: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (the planet's water), the cryosphere (ice zones), and the biosphere (plants and animals). Human activity has already significantly altered all these elements.

Currently, we are witnessing a considerable decrease in ice volume at an alarming rate. "As I mentioned to my father this week", one of the risks associated with Arctic ice melting is the release of methane trapped under the ice (Smedley, 2019). This gas has a more potent greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide (CO₂), and its release could accelerate global warming.

The global carbon cycle allows plants, soils, and oceans to absorb part of the CO₂ we produce. However, we are reducing this natural absorption capacity. Deforestation, necessary for agricultural expansion that must supply the growing demand for food and urbanization, reduces forests' capacity to capture carbon. Oceans are also acidifying due to high CO₂ absorption (United Nations, 2009), altering the chemical composition of water with serious consequences for marine life.

Rising sea levels threaten to affect certain islands and regions like Bangladesh (UNICEF Spanish Committee, n.d.). The effects of climate change are generating a growing population of climate refugees (UNHCR Spanish Committee, 2019). In this context, countries located in regions less prone to suffer these phenomena, such as central Europe, could be considering extreme measures, such as militarization of their borders and wall construction, in order to control the flow of people from nations where life is no longer viable.

Possible solutions

Humanity is responsible for these interconnected global problems, which will intensify with population growth. As someone very close says, we already know the problem… but what are the solutions?

Transition to renewable energies: Although we are implementing this transition belatedly, substantial programs are required to establish clean energy sources on a planetary scale.
Transformative policies: Political leaders must make courageous decisions, even if they are not popular. Experiences at COPs and other international events demonstrate that necessary measures have faced significant obstacles.
Change in consumption patterns: Reducing our consumption of energy, food, and consumer goods will require a cultural transformation toward sustainability.
Control population growth??? A complex and sensitive topic...

Reflection

"The truth," I think nothing will happen despite the problems looming for the planet. We find ourselves in a difficult situation, with no return, and it seems that everything will continue as before, without anyone reacting to the urgency of the planetary crisis.

In my case, I will continue giving lectures through Suforall (Sustainability for All), where I explain the challenges our planet faces and how each person, regardless of their profession, academic background, social status, or economic situation, can contribute to finding solutions. The problems affecting our planet concern us all.

Today, I am not sure whether I should laugh or cry knowing that on February 12, 2020, at 7 a.m., we will be 50 million Colombians.

Good day...

References

UNHCR Spanish Committee. (2019, February). Water scarcity in the world: causes and consequences. https://eacnur.org/blog/escasez-agua-en-el-mundo-tc_alt45664n_o_pstn_o_pst/

UNHCR Spanish Committee. (2019, June 28). Climate change and disasters cause increasingly more displacements. https://eacnur.org/es/actualidad/noticias/emergencias/refugiados-climaticos

Camacho, A. (1984, November 11). 35 million people condemned to death. El País. https://elpais.com/diario/1984/11/11/internacional/468975601_850215.html

Coutiño, R. D., & Castellanos, S. E. (n.d.). Sustainable development opportunity for all. The McGraw-Hill.

El Tiempo. (2020, February 12). We are now 50 million inhabitants in Colombia. El Tiempo, p. 1.

Emmott, S. (2013). Ten billion (pp. 1-208). Anagrama.

FAO. (1996). 6. Lessons from the green revolution: towards a new green revolution. http://www.fao.org/3/w2612s/w2612s06.htm

United Nations. (2009, May 25). Dangers of ocean acidification. https://news.un.org/es/story/2009/05/1164771

United Nations. (2020). Population. https://www.un.org/es/sections/issues-depth/population/index.html

Näslund-Hadley, E., Ramos, M. C., Paredes, J., Bolívar, A., & Wilches-Chaux, G. (n.d.). Water to treasure. In Get on board an initiative to face climate change. Inter-American Development Bank.

Smedley, T. (2019, June 29). Climate change: the "carbon bomb," diseases and poisons that Arctic ice melting is bringing to light. BBC Future. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/vert-fut-48930972

UNICEF Spanish Committee. (n.d.). Climate change threatens the lives and future of more than 19 million children in Bangladesh. https://www.unicef.es/prensa/el-cambio-climatico-amenaza-la-vida-y-el-futuro-de-mas-de-19-millones-de-ninos-en-bangladesh